My Predictions for the 08 Phillies

Phillies 08: A Few Predictions

Starting Pitching: Boy... oh Boy

Hamels is an ace. Enough said. They need to lean on him big time for this team to win 95 games. He needs to pitch deep into games to make up for the short exits the rest of the staff will have all season long. If he gets close to 220 innings it would be huge. He probably won't, but 200 would be great too.

Myers has never been a consistent starter, but should be good for 12-14 wins with this offense. Still, his ERA will probably hover in the 4.5 range. If he does have a nice year, then the staff levels off decently.

Kendrick is still wildly unproven over the course of a full season. It stinks, but he's going to be the reason this team does or does not reach the 95 wins they need. He doesn't have great stuff, but does seem to have a certain moxie that could lead to a decent career. He reminds me a lot of Paul Byrd. That wouldn't be so bad. He has great movement and naturally keeps the ball down. A great recipe in this park.

Jamie Moyer: Unfortunately, I think his time is pretty much done. If you get 10 wins out of him and 170 innings I would consider his season a success. He broke down last year, so look for his role to be very limited (6 innings a start). The team can not afford to trot him out there at that pace. It will weaken the bullpen too much. Moyer won't be in the rotation by the years end.

Adam Eaton: Look at his career. He stinks. Forget his injuries, Adam Eaton is terrible. He has no movement on his fastball and really is lucky to have suckered any team into this kind of contract. It's a joke.

Basically, with few minor leaguers to trade, this is what it is. A pitching staff barely capable of 90 wins. If they play good fundamental baseball, have a strong April, and get great support from the bullpen then yes -- this team could peak around the 97 win mark. That's a lot of "ifs".

I believe they'll call up Carrasco and fill the fifth spot with him at some point. Maybe even Joe Savery could ascend to the big leagues by mid-season. More than likely they'll make a trade for a third starter, move Kendrick down a slot and role the dice with the fifth spot. Moyer Or Eaton is better than Moyer And Eaton...

I would make a move for the unsigned Kris Benson. He may not be ready of yet, but which ever teams signs him will be getting a great deal. He should be ready by the time Moyer will be breaking down. It's perfect actually. Unfortunately, the Phillies will wait until he's healthy to make that call, and then will be outbid by the Mets, Sox, or Yankees. You'll see.

The Lineup:

Rollins, Utley, Howard....It has a nice ring to it, doesn't it? I'm still not fond of Ruiz behind the plate. He's a light hitter and his defense is only a little better than average. I love Chris Coste and believe the Phillies will do more to split the time between he and Ruiz.

Third base is a joke, but maybe they'll find a way to work it out. They made a play for Lowell; that's really the most you could have hoped for. At least Utley's power makes up for the lack of it at the corner.

The outfield will be average. Victorino is an everyday player with pop, speed and a rifle for an arm. Werth is an average outfielder, but did hit close to .300 last year. He'll be fine in a similar role this season. Burrell is a horrible outfielder. People don't even realize how bad he is. See him in person, it's like his shoestrings are permanently tied together. His limited range routinely turns singles into doubles. I'm ecstatic about the addition of Geoff Jenkins. His bat will more than make up for Rowand's departure. Although defensively, this outfield did go from pretty good to pretty average very quickly.

The Bullpen:

Finally....the team has a very capable, if not very good bullpen. The bullpen will help make up for the two starters who won't go deep into games (Moyer, Eaton....).

I love that they resigned J.C. Romero. He will not come close to the success of last season, but hopefully he remains an asset. Unfortunately, I'd say he's 50/50 at best to be that valuable again.

The biggest deal here is the addition of Brad Lidge. He'll be fine as the closer (though not as good as Myers) and will have a committee of players setting him up. Hopefully Gordon has one or two good years left in him. His role will be limited while his success as a setup man is well documented.

The pen is one of the reasons this team may win the 95 games they'll need to win the division.

Getting Madson back is huge for the sixth and seventh innings. I look for him to regain his 2004 form and really dominate in that role. Perhaps he'll grab those middle innings and keep the pressure off the later inning pitchers. Hopefully they get something out of Scott Mathieson and maybe even J A Happ. If one of those two surprises us in the same vane as Kendrick, then it'll help a lot.

All in all, the team needs a trade. I have very little faith in the starting staff and have seen it too many times where early April exits lead to a fatigued bullpen. The best they can hope for is a fast start to carry them until they are able to make a bold mid-season move.

I have a hankering they'll make one more move before the season starts. They may even move Greg Golson for a middle of the rotation pitcher. Hard to say now that Bourne is gone.